By: Tayo Oyekanmi
The decision of the National Working Committee of the APC led by the enfant terrible Adam Oshiomole to stand as a composite bulwark against the candidature of Hon ABDULKABIR Adekunle Akinlade who emerged as the winner of the Governorship primary held in Ogun State on the 2nd of October undermines the party's credentials as a truly progressive party. The party has descended to an all-time low of where anything goes, as such cannot live up to the billing of worthy of her name. That action has exposes the party to ridicule and as well send bad signal to the outside world that the party is a nest and amalgamation of cabals where fairness, justice and equity have no meaning. Thus, the party cannot claim to be different from the pack with this kind of high level impunity.
Now that the Party has almost shut her door against Triple A candidature for the governorship election, following the continuous prevarication, the approbation and reprobation of the unreasonable justification of a never held October 3rd governorship primary will not help APC in Ogun State. Then, what are the options available to Triple A? One of the options is to take everything in his chin and stay with the party even with open robbery and perish the hope of APC faithful who believes in Ogun West Agenda. The other option is to be a risk taker, take the bull by the horns, and see the unjust treatment as a challenge that must be overcome by flying the flag of another political party for the purpose of Governorship election. Examples of those who have done that and went on to win are bound just as those who lost too.
Truly the rumours has not been abating in the last few weeks of Triple A moving to another political party but with a good number of the people been hysterical and expressing reservations about such adventure, opining that it will result to a stillbirth like the 2011 episode under Otunba Gbenga Daniel. However, some of these political enthusiasts have taken their speculation and political postulation to higher level of pure sentiment diluted with emotions and cheer passion bereft of any logical empirical political inquiry of the present phenomenon emanating from the interface or competition among major actors with special and different idiosyncrasies in the political arena that can validate the vainglorious postulations. Rather, rational enquiries with facts and figures that can lead to objective projections are not put into the process. This is surely a deception and cannot stand the test of time. Though as rightly observed by Wilson Tozer, of all forms of deception, self-deception is the deadliest and of all deceived persons, the self-deceived are the least likely to discover the fraud or perhaps pretend not to have discovered the truth so as to drag other people into their deception. Not to be carried away by the deception of history, it is highly important for the people to know that despite the fact that history has a way of repeating itself, but that is if we do not properly guide against it. Life’s occurrences and vicissitudes of such are ordinarily supposed to be a learning curve for those who want to learn and avoid the pitfalls and landmines of yesteryears. We must also realise that the only thing constant in life is change.
A peep into the historical account and context of what happened under OGD and the present political imbroglio in APC look very similar in nature but surely not the same. In the first place, the dramatis personae are not the same. The statistics in terms of the indices, facts and figures are not the same. The time is different as such the voters are slightly different in terms of those who have attained voting age since after 2011. The circumstances are not the same just as it's a truism that no two elections are always the same in terms of everything. Therefore, we cannot safely as a Political Scientist conclude that the outcome will be the same cul-de-sac expedition. It will be hasty, personal prejudice and highly subjective to do that for an election that's yet to take place.
In our clime, aside some level of general acceptability of individuals, the major factors of winning elections is the structures and platforms/political parties, not leaving out availability of resources too. The present political configuration of Ogun State shows 3 major structures as being dominant and effectively efficient to win elections. These are the SIA structure, OGD and Osoba structures. There is no OBJ structure anywhere in the State. Baba is a Nationalist cum international figure not too keen on the rigours of grass root politicking. All the 3 structures are presently domicile in either APC, PDP, ADC or ADP so to say. The most formidable political Structure in Ogun State today is no doubt Amosun's. We can argue from now till tomorrow but the truth is always true. This structure might have become formidable on the account of Amosun being the Governor. But the structure dates back to 2003 from Central Senatorial districts before spreading to the other 2 senatorial districts in 2007 through the defunct ANPP platform and became what it is today since 2011 when Amosun became the Governor. OGD and his political dexterity actually inherited the JMK structure, turned it into a political machine. But today, the structure might have seen her best glory in the years past as it is presently fractured and fragmented into Buruji's, Lado's, Dimeji's in ADP, the Kawonishe's in YES party and not forgetting those in Accord party too. The Akinrogun Osoba's structure is the most enduring in the State today but the potency of that structure is in doubt, maybe on the account of long years of absence from Government. It has been badly hit by economic factors at the local level leaving a lot of foot soldiers to become journey men. Besides, the last adventure of the structure with the SDP in 2015 ended up badly.
The SIA structure has become a sizeable enclave, a significant factor in the demographic, political and electoral calculus of where Ogun State is heading in the next election. If Triple A decides to try his luck elsewhere, of course with the full backing of SIA political structure, his candidature and the new party becomes a force to be reckoned with instantly. While the biggest and immediate causality of that movement will surely and definitely be APC as a political party in Ogun State. Those pushing for the exit of SIA structure are not taking this into consideration. Hitherto, no political party can shout Eureka yet in the State. The APC almost have it in the kitty but with the present impasse, things are no longer the same.
If the issue become more pertinent around the noble course of Ogun West agenda and looking at the best approach and chance to cement the governorship aspiration on solid ground for the first time in history, no matter how difficult and rigorous it becomes, then, GNI and the rest of ADC team must find a means and understanding of working together with Triple A and the larger and tested structure of SIA political family. If the aspiration is about Ogun West then something must give way. This might not be palatable to some hearing. But we must become practical and realistic in our quest for the governorship contest. Ogun West cannot fight the governorship battle without a propelling force in the mode of Governor Amosun with the State power. Unless we are thinking of just participating in the contest but not winning like participants at the Olympic. The biggest backer of Ogun West governorship aspiration as at today, that possess courage in abundance, conviction and have what it takes to drive the process to a logical conclusion remain no other person than Amosun. Though difficult from the surface for the camp of GNI, having done a lot of ground works; But the difficulty of it does not implies that it is out rightly impossible. Putting it succinctly, the difficulty of a task should not be an excuse to avoiding it. As Orison Swett Marden said "Success is not measured by what you accomplish but by the opposition you have encountered and the courage with which you have maintained the struggle against overwhelming odds". In this case, we talk about the collective success of Ogun West in the Governorship race. May we have the courage and honour to do that which will lead us to our collective goal.
Hon. Tayo Oyekanmi is a former Leader Ipokia Legislative Council
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